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•Income Portfolio •Fund Portfolio Marketwatch The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index surged 1.2 percent in May after a 1.1 percent jump in April, the first back-to-back monthly gains for the index of more than 1 percent since the 1960s. The US economy will emerge from recession late in the third quarter or early in the fourth quarter of this year. Although a broad market correction of 5 to 10 percent is possible in the near term, this pullback should largely be viewed as a buying opportunity. 7/8/2009 in MarketWatch Healthy Buying Opportunity President Obama's health care plan spooked the market. Although the sector is pricing in a worst-case scenario, the most radical elements aren't likely to survive. Here's how to profit. 7/8/2009 in First Article Asian Consumption Asia's long-term investing story is all about domestic consumption. Position your portfolio now. 7/8/2009 in Second Article A New Day for Nuclear Power Carbon-free nuclear power is gaining fans in unlikely places, and the PF portfolios are positioned to profit. 7/8/2009 in Third Article Offense and Defense Economists are famous for digging up obscure indicators to back up almost any view on the economy and markets. But such analysis offers investors little clarity as to how, when and where to invest. I prefer to follow a relatively small number of indicators that have proven their worth over many decades. The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI) is one such indicator; I follow LEI closely as an indicator of recessions and recoveries. 7/8/2009 in Growth Track Junk Makes A Comeback The Income Portfolio strategy is to own a wide variety of yield-generating investments. Some will take hits from time to time, but we'll continue to hold as long as the underlying operation remains solid. 7/8/2009 in The Income Report Global Income For years, the dividends paid by companies such as General Electric (NYSE: GE), Citigroup (NYSE: C) and Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) were viewed as sacrosanct. But all three have reduced payouts amid the rash of cuts we've seen over past several months. Dividend-paying companies in Asia haven't fallen into such a trend, however; payout cuts in this region have been the exception rather than the rule. 7/8/2009 in Fund Focus Regulators, Mount Up Now that the Federal Reserve and Treasury Dept's efforts to stabilize the financial system and economy have banished fears of an imminent collapse, the Obama administration is shifting its focus to regulatory reform. 7/8/2009 in On the Money Same As It Ever Was The Linn Energy story is based on stable cash flow supported by the long-life nature of its reserves and its aggressive three-year hedging program. Production rates are predictable, and much of it is already contracted for sale. 7/8/2009 in Stock Update Capsule Advisory A long-standing criticism of 401k plans may soon be addressed by Congress. Following a 29-to-17 vote in the US House Education and Labor Committee, legislation requiring itemization and clear description of fees charged in connection with 401k plans will now go to the full House for a vote. 7/8/2009 in Capsule Advisory India Revisited Although India has never exhibited the same growth characteristics as the rest of Asia and can't match China's reported growth rates, it has largely avoided the boom-and-bust cycles that afflict the region's developing economies. And despite all the negative economic news this year, in the first quarter Indian real GDP increased 5.8 percent from a year ago, an impressive result that suggests the economy remains on sound footing. 7/8/2009 in Web Exclusive Capsule Advisory |
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The three major US stock indexes ended on the downside. Unemployment rose to to 9.5 percent, the highest since August 1983. ... more
Saturday, June 27, 2009 Clusters of positive monthly gains in LEI above 0.5 percent typically suggest an end to recession. Given this backdrop, I'm sticking with my projection that the recession in the US will end either late in the third quarter of 2009 or early in the fourth quarter. I suspect there's more upside to come for stocks as the market snaps back from the worst recession since at least 1982. ... more
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7600A Leesburg Pike, West Building Suite 300 • Falls Church, VA 22043 703-394-4931 (ph) • 703-905-8100 (fax) • personalfinance@kci-com.com |
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